The hypothesis of fast growth. New arguments. After the 1981-2003 quasi-stagnation, the Brazilian economy signals that it is back to fast growth. The aborted growth spurts in this period accumulated an expansion potential that is now emerging. The growth frustration was particularly significant in the case of the growth surge beginning in 1999, as an outcome of the large 1999 depreciation of the real and the substantial 1990s increase of productivity. Now this repressed growth is being spontaneously liberated. It may be additionally liberated by adequate economic policies. Improvements in macroeconomic policy and the implementation of mini micro reforms are consistent with this incremental approach.

According to recent available information, the Brazilian economy may be entering a cycle of sustained growth. The dominant current interpretation points to the progresses made in terms of monetary stability, Balance of Payments and structural reforms. Indeed, without monetary stability and the commercial opening of the economy, investments would not be increasing and credit growth would not be helping the emergence of millions of new consumers. But these achievements should be taken as generally conditioning, rather than actually shaping the new picture. Some unexpected (not rarely positive) consequences of overcoming the long enduring semi-stagnation, the emergence of China as a major player, and its consequences on the necessary re-structuring of the Brazilian industry, seem to be decisive in the present day redefinition of the Brazilian GDP growth potential.

RESUMO A indústria brasileira sofreu profundas mudanças nos anos 90, embora não seja fácil ter uma visão sintética e abrangente da transformação. Para ter essa visão, é preciso levar em consideração a forte influência dos anos de alta inflação (até meados de 1994). A estabilização e a supervalorização (do real) nos anos seguintes ao lançamento do Plano Real foram outra influência decisiva. O artigo argumenta que, submetida a esse conjunto de eventos condicionantes, a indústria brasileira passou por uma recuperação (limitada) durante os anos noventa. Ele também tenta mostrar como o progresso se concentrou principalmente no nível do avião - tanto em empresas industriais multinacionais quanto nas domésticas.

ABSTRACT The Brazilian industry has been deeply changed during the nineties although it is not easy to have a synthetic and encompassing view of the transformation occurred. ln order to have such a view one has to take into account the heavy influence of the years of high inflation (until mid 1994). Stabilization and overvaluation (of the real) in the years following the launching of the Real Plan were another decisive influence. The article argues that submitted to this set of conditioning events, industry in Brazil went through a (limited) catch up during the nineties. It also tries to show how progress has been mainly concentrated at the plane level - both in multinational and in domestic industrial firms.